Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Iran and Syria confront US with defence pact
posted by Anar @ 12:37 AM
6 comments
Manifestation
This is me...the image of my world in my mind...how accurate is it? What's your measure?
Thursday, February 17, 2005
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6 Comments:
Iran and Syria certainly make strange bedfellows. The government of Syria has a lot in common with Saddam's Baathist government. Also, considering that Syria is most likely giving safe haven to some of Saddam's former top lieutenants, it is surprizing that Iran would be eager to team up with the Syrians. I guess that this is a classic case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".
If the Syrians did assassinate Rafik Hariri, then this was indeed a very stupid move on their part. They have made him a martyr in the eyes of a great many Lebanese people who loved him. After his death, it seems that the Syrians will have a much more difficult time in continuing to occupy Lebanon. Of course, while the U.S. continues to occupy Iraq in the name of "keeping the peace", Syria can just say that it is doing the same in Lebanon. To some extent, there would be truth in that. After all, the Syrian occupation of Lebanon did end the long and bloody civil war there.
Well, It's no good that our ally is a dictatorship country like syria! I have been to Syria at the time of Bashar Assad! You could see his photos everywhere, e.g. in hotles, taxis, streets with this statement "Our leader forever would be Bashar Assad!", The common charactristic of middle east dictatorships. It brought me up the famous "Big Brother is watching you!" from "1984" novel. However, I believe that syrian guys are wiser than their counterparts in Iran since they dont let themselves to get stuck with ideological viewpoints and mottos preventing them from following their benefits!
By: Babak
They always take the wrong side, we should get used to it after twenty something years.
A few comments...
I
Patrick Seale is a less then reliable source when it comes to Syria. He has done the only 'authorized' biography of Syrian
President Hafez el Assad and has been used by the regime ever since. His writings on syria are oberoptimistic about the
baathist regime achievements and his close relations to many baath members (including the royal family) have made many
suspecting him of bribery.
II
"Syria would never have done this! It's a political suicide!"...
Or miscalculation... Syria is so used to executing lebanese politicians without anybody in the international community caring
for lebanon that it might underestmitaed the consequences.
"Syria would never have done this! It's a political suicide!"...
Political suicide is a perfectly plausible explanation. It happens when a regime is lead by irrational/violent people. This
may seem odd for an westerner because politician in Europe/USA are balanced people. But just look at Saddam Hussein's attack
on Koweit and his refusal to withdrawal in 1990. He believed the mighty Irakian army to be invincible and no general dared to
tell him the truth. A war on Koweit less than two years after the war on Iran was a perfectly irrational move that can be
explained by the dictator's paranoia.
Actually the move is not so stupid. The opposition in Lebanon is very fragile and consist of different religious groups,
which is not frequent in this country. Because of their relations with the syrian people (not the alawite regime) sunni
muslims in Lebanon are reluctant to fight against Syria. The sunni are part of the anti-syrian coalition but without the
authority of a leader such as Mr. Hariri this support can quickly fade. Anybody who really follows politics in Lebanon knows
that this is the biggest fear of the opposition.
III
You have to consider what Syria has done in Lebanon before : assasinating at least two presidents and 37 proeminents
political figures, tens of thousands of ordinary Lebanese and building sectarians feelings in Lebanon since the late 1960's.
Hundreds of lebanese are still in syrian jails and Lebanon is the economic lung of Syria. Billions of $ are transferred each
year from Lebanon to economically exhausted Syria. The syrian regime survival is in question here and Damascus is unlikely to
do it "the soft way".
IV
Although Israel has active agents in Lebanon, its network is not big enough to carry an operation of this size. Israel may be
able to kill any politician in the region but not this way. Moreover Israel is not likely to risk an international crisis for
the sole reason of (maybe) destabilizing Syria. On the contrary, many high-ranking Israeli officers fear that a Syrian
withdrawal will leave Israel northern border vulnerable to again-free Hezbollah and palestinian forces. If you want to have a
conspiration theory, at least make it plausible.
V
The Hariri family has accused syria of the assasination of Hariri. Hariri is a sunni and enjoy a high prestige in the Sunni
population in Syria. The last thing the minority alawite-regime want is a sunni leadership emerging in Syria. As the syrian
withdrawal begun to appear ineluctable (because of the vote of the 1559 resolution), some members of the regime might have
been tempted of executing Hariri in order to avoid sunni unrest in Syria.
VI
Most arab capitals strongly even if discreetly believe that Syria is behind the assasination. Including Riyad who enjoyed
excellent relations with late Mr Hariri.
VII
At least give some credit to the Lebanese public opinion who has deep and painful knowledge of syrian political customs. Last
but not least, when speaking in private, Lebanon's pro-syrian politicans and members of shia sect in Lebanon hardly deny
Syrian responsibility.
"To some extent, there would be truth in that. After all, the Syrian occupation of Lebanon did end the long and bloody civil war there."
Please do some research before posting something stupide.
When king Hussein of Jordan crushed the palestians in 1970, it was syrian trucks who took the palestinian militias from jordan to lebanon.
They armed the palestian forces in Lebanon in the 70's in order to destabilize the country
An example among other: in 1989 Hassan Khaled the highest lebanese sunni cleric was assasinated because he tried to establish an agreement between his sect and thechristians (guess by who?)
And is it to bring 'peace' that syria assasinated two lebanese presidents?
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